美国股债相关性创30年来新高,达到互联网泡沫破裂前几年的水平

智通财经
Aug 14
【美国股债相关性创30年来新高,达到互联网泡沫破裂前几年的水平】美国国债与股票回报率的三个月相关性升至1997年以来最高水平,以120天衡量的相关性更突破50%,这是上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫破裂前几年才出现过的水平,反映通胀升温再次打破传统股债负相关关系。分析认为,通胀若持续高企并推动市场重新押注美联储加息,将同时压低债券价格和股票估值,对“60/40”投资组合构成风险。不过,花旗研究指出,历史数据显示,高名义收益率本身并不会压制标普500指数表现,真正值得警惕的是收益率快速上行。随着就业和通胀数据走弱,以及美联储主席凯文·沃什政策基调偏鸽,利率急剧上行的风险有所下降,强劲企业盈利也为股市提供缓冲。

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