小摩:超强厄尔尼诺即将来袭 明年或爆发全球粮食危机

格隆汇
Aug 16
摩根大通日前警告称,下一轮全球粮食危机可能正在酝酿之中,或于明年爆发。该行分析师将驱动因素归结为“五个W”:战争(War)、天气(Weather)、仓储(Warehousing)、水(Water)和浪费(Waste)。在一份题为《粮食安全即国家安全:一场不断叠加的风暴》(Food Security Is National Security : A Compounding Storm)的新报告中,由驻伦敦资深全球经济学家NoraSzentivanyi领衔的团队警告称,霍尔木兹海峡航运中断,以及潜在的历史级超强厄尔尼诺现象的出现,可能会削弱农作物产量、制约农业生产,并使食品通胀在2027年上半年持续居高不下。她预计,全球食品通胀率将从2026年上半年的2.8%加速升至明年上半年的5%。

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