金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，美以伊冲突已延宕逾五个月，针对近期市场关注的伊朗-阿曼潜在通航协议，该机构认为该协议无法彻底化解海峡通航风险，中东局势或仍将处于特朗普在“TACO式退让”与“恼羞成怒式升级”之间反复循环的僵局之中。究其原因，一来该协议本质是伊朗对美施压工具，但其强硬态度将直接危及特朗普的政治遗产，因而双方谈判难有进展。二来各方围绕海峡控制权仍存在结构性矛盾，或难形成长期稳定的管理制度。综合来看，后续真正具有观测意义的信号是美国是否正式启动制裁豁免、资产解冻及海上封锁调整。展望后续影响，在中短期，即使各方达成海峡管理安排并解除封锁，通航量也未必能够迅速、完全恢复至战前水平。在有限通航情景下，全球通胀压力仍在，但极端风险可控。在长期，围绕霍尔木兹海峡的博弈显示美国维护全球秩序的能力和意愿正加速衰落，并将推动中东地缘格局与全球供应链加速重构。风险因素：美国中东政策超预期调整；中东地缘政治形势超预期恶化；全球地缘风险超预期上升。
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