金吾财讯 | 港股纸业股普升，截至发稿，理文造纸（02314）涨2.72%，合丰集团（02320）涨2.00%，玖龙纸业（02689）涨1.75%，建发新胜（00731）涨1.64%。消息面上，浙商证券表示，箱板纸26年淡季涨价超预期，为22年以来首次。箱板纸、瓦楞纸26年2月-7月价格累计上涨幅度均达300元+。本轮价格上涨该行认为主要由箱板纸供需边际改善叠加能源成本上升共同推动，期待7月-11月旺季表现。从供给端看，国内产能扩张步入尾声且缺乏后续计划，叠加美废和能源成本高企导致进口利润承压、进口量下滑，而出口渠道明显改善，这使得供给收缩具备极强的持续性；从需求端看，虽然缺乏爆发性增长，但整体呈现温和复苏与边际改善的态势。在供需格局改善的同时，海外美废与能源成本的持续提涨，将倒逼进口纸价格上行，从而在成本与供需的双重驱动下，国内纸价的上行有较强持续性。
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