市场押注澳洲联储将于11月加息以对抗通胀

格隆汇
Aug 14
投机投资者正越来越多押注澳洲联储将在11月再次加息,原因是通胀水平仍高于央行目标。掉期市场定价目前预计,到11月澳洲联储加息25个基点的概率约为45%,高于周二澳洲联储利率决议前的38%。在澳大利亚证券交易所衍生品市场交易的2026年11月银行间现金利率期货,当天成交活跃度升至逾三个月高位,显示市场投机兴趣增强。这些押注表明,市场越来越怀疑澳洲联储的紧缩周期尚未结束。尽管政策制定者本周维持利率不变,但由于通胀仍高于澳洲联储2%-3%的目标区间,交易员将继续关注即将公布的物价和就业市场数据,以寻找今年是否需要再次加息的线索。

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