金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券点评7月美国CPI指，地产、消费偏弱，租金、核心商品内生涨价动能不足，核心CPI有望保持低位，3个月环比中枢已掉至0.2%以内，低于年初水平，而彼时有2-3次降息预期。但是，当前与年初比，有三大不同，这是宽松交易能否进阶为降息交易的关键：（1）油价。美伊不确定性大，不论是机票分项对核心通胀的拉动，还是整体物价观感，油价影响不可忽视。（2）就业。年初就业市场衰退担忧较浓，目前系统性改善。就业若稳，降息观察窗口拉长。关注9月前后非农年度大修，或是就业判断拐点。（3）框架。沃什和鲍威尔不一样，其新框架到底长什么样？关注8月底杰克逊霍尔会议。短期宽松交易或延续，但三大疑问揭晓前，仍需警惕波动。建议区间交易思路，前期滞涨的美债或有性价比。
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