野村:印度财政赤字可能出现20个基点的偏离 明年年底前料不会加息

格隆汇
Aug 14
野村预计,印度2026/27财年财政赤字目标4.3%可能出现20个基点的偏离,同时预计印度央行在明年年底前不会加息。野村经济学家在一份报告中表示:“我们认为,自伊朗战争局势高峰以来,印度财政风险已经有所缓解,但在我们的基准情景下,仍预计财政赤字率将出现约0.2个百分点的偏离。”野村表示,与去年相比,今年市场情绪已经发生变化。市场对经济增长、财政状况和经常账户韧性的信心增强,对与美国贸易摩擦的担忧则有所减弱。野村预计,基准情景下印度财年经济增速为6.6%,但如果4月至6月经济表现强劲,实际增速可能超出预期。野村表示:“尽管目前出现了一些供应端压力的迹象,但尚未看到普遍性通胀的迹象。”

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