Formula One's Drive to Capture American Eyeballs Makes the Stock a Buy

Dow Jones
Aug 20

Given the value of predictable performance and steady returns, boring is often beautiful when it comes to stocks. And then there's Formula One car racing.

From Monte Carlo to Milan, the world of F1 has long been dripping with glamour, making stars out of drivers like Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton, who are outshone only by the supercars themselves. Storied auto makers like Ferrari, McLaren, and Aston Martin today share the track with newer entrants from Cadillac and Red Bull's Racing Bulls team.

The business of F1, however, was a different story.

"From 1950 until about 2016, it was pretty badly run," says Markus Hansen, a portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management, which owns Liberty Media Series C Liberty Formula One shares. "In 2017, when Liberty Media took over Formula One, they brought a proper approach to running the business...to turning sports assets into viable financial businesses."

Those changes, along with a growing audience in the U.S. and across the world, increasing advertising, and the acquisition of MotoGP-basically the F1 version of motorcycle racing-should keep the story going. U.S. viewership on ESPN grew to a record 1.3 million for the 2025 season, with all but three of 21 races seeing increases from the previous year, the network reported. Apple says streaming viewership is "way up" since it began broadcasting the races on Apple TV this season, though the company doesn't release specific numbers as it falls outside Nielsen ratings. Overall about 70 million global TV tune in per race weekend, according to F1's figures.

Liberty Media's ownership may make some investors balk, given John Malone's reputation for complex ownership rules, tax structure, and tracking stocks. Yet Formula One has transitioned from a tracking stock to a more direct ownership equity structure.

Liberty Media is also "the best media asset owners we know," says Josh Cummings, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, which owns the shares. "We are confident in the capital allocation and corporate governance practices."

As for Formula One specifically, it's an "irreplaceable asset," providing the rare combination of a global sports leagues that is public and "still under-monetized globally," says Cummings.

F1's upscale reputation attracts fellow luxury players like LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton as advertisers and sponsors, and its brand recognition overall is hard to beat. The recent addition of races like November's Las Vegas Grand Prix has helped to attract new fans in the U.S., along with the first All-American team, Team Cadillac.

Ticket sales for this year's Las Vegas race are some two months ahead of last year, notes UBS analyst Ryan Gravett, "suggesting an opportunity for earlier price increases...sponsorship commitments for the Las Vegas Grand Prix are also pacing well ahead of 2025 levels."

Apple took over the U.S. F1 broadcast rights from Walt Disney's ESPN, and "sports media rights only go one way, which is up and to the right, because of the eyeball effect," says Hansen. "Everyone wants to watch it live, so sports are the last bastion of pricing power...and this is a rare media stock where you don't have to worry about artificial-intelligence disruption."

It's also in demand not only from fans but from host cities as well: In the U.S. Miami and Austin have races as well, and on the other side of the world, deep-pocketed countries like China and Saudi Arabia are jockeying for more races. "Anything where you see demand is greater than supply, if run correctly, should be a pretty good business," Hansen notes.

That hasn't translated into much stock success yet, as the A, B, and C series shares are all trailing the broader market, but that could soon change.

Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Diffley recently reiterated Formula One as his top pick among media and entertainment companies. Diffley says he's "surprised how under-owned the stock is." With investors hungry for non-AI risk and winners in sports and live events, "we believe this can be a fund flow beneficiary," especially if there is any de-escalation of war in the Middle East.

Liberty Media Series C Liberty Formula One shares should trade to $120, says Diffley, about 15% above their current level. "Financials are underpinned by highly visible and contracted revenue streams (media rights and race promotion fees) with clear upside drivers around partnerships/sponsorships and increasingly licensing," he says. Diffley is also upbeat about MotoGP, where "they are in the early innings of running the proven F1 playbook."

He has plenty of company in the bull camp: All but two of the 17 analysts tracked by FactSet have a Buy rating or the equivalent on the stock, and consensus calls for earnings per share to climb nearly 22% in 2027 to $2.25, and continue to accelerate from there.

That puts the shares at 46 times next year's earnings-not cheap by any means. But it's "not aberrational either," says Cummings. "Individual sports franchises routinely transact at seven to 10 times revenue or higher. Formula One is unique relative to sports teams in that it not only earns money but can (and will) use free-cash-flow generation to reduce its share count over time."

There are risks: F1 audiences in the U.S. are still dwarfed by other sports, and an economic downturn could hurt interest in attending the races. The company's results could be volatile.

Nonetheless, F1 is a growing global franchise whose cachet is based on real demand, without the threat of AI looming in the background.

"Formula One is far more than a racing league," says John Donnelly, an analyst at Jennison, which owns the stock. "We view F1 as a global luxury brand...[whose] fans are primarily young, affluent, and increasingly engaged across social media, streaming platforms, and live races. F1's monetization engine is just starting to rev up."

That's plenty of green flags.

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