金吾财讯 | 据外媒新近报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）新任首席经济学家西尔瓦娜·特雷里奥在周四由英国央行员工发表的一项研究中警告称，即便人工智能（AI）能够显著提升生产力，也不一定会推动通胀下行。传统观念认为，生产力提高意味着“以相同投入生产更多产出”，理应拉低商品与服务价格。然而，特雷里奥及其研究团队指出，预期中的生产力增长对通胀的实际影响极具不确定性。研究强调，企业投资和家庭支出往往会提前于实际生产力的提升。当前全球对AI基础设施的巨额投资就是典型例证。若投资需求和消费预期在实际生产力成效显现前爆发，极易引发供应链紧张，进而推高通胀并促使央行维持更高的利率水平。例如，过去一年数据中心对存储和显卡芯片的强劲需求已导致手机、电脑等消费电子产品价格大幅上涨。研究补充称，生产力提升对通胀的作用还取决于其主要发生在出口商品领域还是本土服务业。服务业生产力的提升更有可能抑制本土通胀，而出口领域的生产力增长则易拉高国内工资，并增加对供给受限服务业的需求，反而可能推升整体通胀。
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