金吾财讯 | 知名投资机构BTIG技术策略师乔纳森·克林斯基发布研究报告警告称，当前美股交易正展现出极强的“因子抢椅子”特征，不同板块间的剧烈轮动或演变成一场大范围的抛售潮，投资者应赶在“音乐停止”前提早规划离场。BTIG指出，资金正在不同的市场因子（如动量、规模、行业敞口）之间进行极致的快速流动。半导体板块（SMH）、高贝塔动量股（SPHB、SPMO等）与标普500等权重指数（RSP）等资产呈现明显的负相关走势，形成了互相消长而非同向上涨的跷跷板格局。财报数据显示，2026年至今已有57个交易日出现“标普500指数价格走势与市场广度相反”的异象，追平了过去30年来的最高年度纪录。考虑到目前仅进入8月中旬，这一纪录大概率将在今年被打破。BTIG强调，虽然目前整体市场依然保持着相对温和的抛售压力，但板块轮动的稳定性正在快速衰减，市场崩溃的触发点可能比大多数投资者预期的要近得多。
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