专家:英伟达泡沫三年内或将破裂,算力需求或骤降百万倍

格隆汇
Aug 18
据凤凰网财经,日本NTT数据集团主任研究员王坚革教授表示,当前英伟达存在巨大产业泡沫,单一高利润垄断格局难以长期持续。谈及英伟达行业泡沫存续周期,王坚革给出明确预判:“三年之内泡沫就会破裂,电力供给是当前最大瓶颈。” 他解释泡沫形成根源:现有黑盒大模型缺少高效数学描述工具,行业陷入 “模型规模越大竞争力越强” 的误区,完全脱离物理约束。“描述苹果落地,牛顿力学仅需三个参数,现有大模型却要十亿级图像数据,一旦新型AI数学理论落地,算力需求可降低百万倍,英伟达现有商业逻辑将不复存在。” 泡沫破裂背景下,存储赛道反而迎来长期机遇。无论未来主流是电子AI芯片还是光子AI芯片,数据存储都是刚需,澜起、长鑫不受算力周期剧烈波动影响,产业成长周期将远超英伟达等算力厂商。

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