联昌国际银行经济学家在一份报告中指出，如果外部风险和通胀风险再次对印尼盾构成压力，印尼央行可能在第四季度加息25个基点。他们表示，经常账户赤字的收窄可能在下半年支撑印尼盾，但包括美联储利率路径、美元走强和油价在内的外部因素仍可能是影响印尼盾汇率的关键因素。他们认为，受厄尔尼诺现象可能导致的粮食短缺和中东地区能源价格波动的影响，印尼国内通胀风险偏向上行。鉴于预计下半年经济增长将放缓，联昌国际银行预计印尼央行将保持耐心，同时密切关注全球利率和印尼盾的走势。
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