金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，创新实业（02788）2026年上半年净利润同比增长1.7倍至23亿元人民币，符合7月发布的业绩预告（22亿-24亿元人民币）。分析师会议的核心要点包括：(1) 1.75吉瓦的风电及光伏装机预计将于今年10月前完成安装；(2) 沙特电解铝项目预计将于2027年二季度投产，目前产能建设进展顺利；(3) 煤矿业务资本开支预计共40亿元人民币，于2027-29年间投入。鉴于其强劲的产能增长（沙特项目）以及在国内显著的降本潜力，该机构维持对创新实业的积极观点，尽管资产负债率由于煤矿收购及持续的资本支出需求而有所回升。该机构将2026-28年盈利预测微调-1%至+6%，并小幅上调目标价至32.4港元（此前为32.0港元），基于维持不变的13倍2026年预测市盈率（相较中国宏桥 （01378，买入） 的目标估值倍数溢价20%，以反映创新实业更高的销量增长和更大的降本潜力）。维持买入评级。
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