比特币波动率收窄至历史低位,交易者转向 AI 与预测市场

链捕手
Aug 19

ChainCatcher 消息,据 CoinDesk 报道,比特币近期表现异常平静,30 日已实现波动率年化约 42%,与标普 500 的 18% 差距收窄至有记录以来最窄水平。经历特朗普相关叙事及企业财库买盘后,市场陷入持续压缩区间。B2C2 全球交易主管 Edmond Goh 表示,零售资金正转向 AI 股票、代币化股票及预测市场;TradFi 高频交易与风险模型提升效率,未平仓合约接近历史低位,进一步抑制波动。

Monarq 资产管理合伙人 Shiliang Tang 称,比特币处于价格僵局,上行受企业财库抛售(如 Strategy、MARA)压制,下行则因投机杠杆出清及长期钱包净积累而有限。Strategy 2026 年已售出约 7000 枚 BTC。Wincent 高级总监 Paul Howard 指出,机构 ETF 与 DAT 推动市场成熟,美国监管清晰度(CLARITY 法案)仍待推进,低波动导致成交量下降。

NYDIG 的 Greg Cipolaro 表示,短线交易者追逐 5 倍或 10 倍收益,可选标的已扩展至英伟达、黄金、股票永续合约、0DTE 期权或体育事件合约。韩国零售从加密转向本土 AI 相关股票,Upbit、Bithumb 成交量同比大降。加密平台传统资产永续及 Kalshi、Polymarket 等预测市场成交显著上升。

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