金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，7月份，中国经济因内需不振延续疲软态势，社会消费品零售总额、固定资产投资和房地产数据均低于市场预期并进一步走弱。工业增长小幅回落，但AI相关产出依然强劲。消费者信心持续低迷，家庭预防性储蓄率再次上升，同时新增信贷历史上首次收缩，显示家庭信心和消费意愿进一步恶化。尽管经济增长放缓，但下半年政策支持将更多是针对性稳增长而非全面宽松，因即便下半年GDP增速降至约4.3%，仍足以实现全年4.5%增长目标的下限。国务院会议延续中央政治局的政策信号，要求加快财政资金投放，稳定“六张网络”等固定资产投资，加大对新兴产业的支持力度，但对消费和房地产支持力度有限。股市表现预计将持续高度分化，盈利前景较好的板块如AI硬件和具备全球竞争力的出口导向型行业有望继续跑赢，而其他内需相关的周期性板块则可能延续低迷。该机构维持2026年GDP增长4.6%的预测，预计增速将从上半年的4.7%小幅放缓至下半年的4.6%。
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