30年期国债期货续创年内新高 机构预计债市延续慢牛节奏

智通财经
Aug 18
【30年期国债期货续创年内新高 机构预计债市延续慢牛节奏】8月18日,国债期货盘初快速拉升,30年期国债期货主力合约续创年内新高,盘中最高报116.62元。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示,上周股债同步上涨,债市走强主要受到适度宽松货币政策基调,以及买断式逆回购、隔夜逆回购保持较大规模投放等因素支撑。后续债市走势将由政策预期、资金面和市场风险偏好共同决定,股债相关性或维持低位。明明认为,银行存贷差仍处于较高水平,实体信贷需求相对偏弱,银行内生配债需求较为稳定。特别国债注资也有望增强国有大行资本实力,为银行资产配置提供支撑。与此同时,权益市场波动率处于高位,市场风险偏好可能有所下降,有利于债券配置需求释放。综合来看,债市后续或保持慢牛节奏。

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