智通财经APP获悉，牧业股早盘走高，截至发稿，现代牧业(01117)涨6.69%，报1.515港元；优然牧业(09858)涨5.45%，报4.16港元。
消息面上，5月以来，在口蹄疫、热应激等因素驱使下散奶价格上涨，并超过合同奶价；7月24日，国内主产区生鲜乳价格3.06元/公斤，同比转正。业内人士表示，合同奶价是下游乳企对原奶供需判断的滞后反映，其同比转正表明下游也开始感知供给趋紧，筑底信号明显。此外，现代牧业、优然牧业两家原奶龙头此前发布业绩预告显示，今年上半年经营表现向好，全部实现扭亏。
中信建投指出，近期散奶价格反超合同价，日喷粉生鲜乳减少至2年最低位，主产区奶价小幅回升，原奶周期反转信号明显。随着上游持续去化，预计原奶产量逐步紧缩，下游深加工产能投产增加需求，看好原奶价格开启温和上涨期，头部牧业集团将具备业绩弹性，推荐优然牧业。奶价上升期，中游乳企液奶竞争力增强，上游相关减值减少、投资收益增加，利好业绩改善。
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