Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Aug 18

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1135 GMT - U.K. jobs data reduces the likelihood of a Bank of England interest-rate hike in September, given that labor-market conditions look set to help rather than hinder the fight against inflation by restraining pay growth, accountants lobby group ICAEW says. "The U.K. labor market remains stuck in a low-churn limbo, with employers reluctant to hire, fire or offer bigger pay rises as they grapple with rising costs, intensifying global headwinds and heightened policy uncertainty," ICAEW's chief economist Suren Thiru says. Falling vacancies suggest labor demand is shrinking, while speculation over the government budget in the fall could damp employers' appetite to hire, he adds. Unemployment held steady at 4.9%, while private-sector earnings fell to 2.8% in the three months through June, the data showed. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1130 GMT - Gulf markets are likely to remain focused this week on whether negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz translate into a visible improvement in shipping activity, Iridium Advisors says. Higher oil prices are no longer lifting regional markets uniformly, with investors distinguishing between companies benefiting from tighter energy and logistics markets and those exposed to slower trade, travel disruption or margin pressure, the firm says. The final large wave of second-quarter earnings calls should also remain in focus, with 26 scheduled this week before the reporting calendar thins out, Iridium says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1129 GMT - Investors continue to believe European equities will gain over the next one to three months, according to Bank of America's European fund manager survey for August. A net 53% expect European stocks to rise over the period, with 76% believing that companies upgrading their earnings outlooks will drive gains, they say. On average, money managers surveyed expect European earnings per share to rise by 7.5% over the next 12-months--the most bullish prognosis since February. European investors are increasingly confident that the continent's stocks will outperform U.S. equities, with 47% betting on outperformance over the next 12 months--up from under 40% in July. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

1103 GMT - An AI bubble is viewed as the biggest tail-risk event, according to 32% of investors in the Bank of America global fund manager survey for August. A tail risk is the possibility of an extreme and rare event happening which could have a considerable impact on financial markets. The second biggest tail risk event is a disorderly rise in bond yields, according to 27% of investors who responded to the survey. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1057 GMT - The expiry of Frasers Group's offer for Hugo Boss means investor attention will switch back to the German premium fashion company's operating performance, says MWB Research's Alexander Zienkowicz. The backdrop for Hugo Boss is challenging due to weak consumer sentiment, subdued demand in China and lower tourist spending in the Middle East, MWB says. However, the company is sacrificing near-term sales to reset some of its distribution network and improve wholesale distribution, Zienkowicz notes. Hugo Boss needs to show these changes can result in structurally stronger margins and a return to sustainable growth from 2027. MWB maintains its hold recommendation on the stock and 38 euro price target. Shares are down 0.4% at 37.95 euros. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

1056 GMT - Investor confidence that U.S. equities will do better than other regions is higher this month, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August. A net 27% of managers surveyed say they allocate a greater proportion of their portfolios to U.S. stocks than the region's weighting in global benchmarks, indicating investors expect American stocks to outperform. The print for August is the highest since December 2024, and up three percentage points on the 24% of money managers who were overweight U.S. equities in July. U.S. equity indexes have largely outperformed so far this year. The S&P 500 is up 13% for the year to date, compared with 10% for the Europe-wide Stoxx 600. U.S. stocks lag Japanese and Korean stocks, however. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

1048 GMT - Siemens' smart infrastructure unit posted a strong third-quarter result as data-center orders grew by tripe-digits, Berenberg analysts write. Despite this, investors were disappointed by the lack of upgrade in its digital industries unit as automation growth momentum was less pronounced than peers and there was some order softness in June, they say. The analysts retain their buy rating on the German industrial giant's stock and increase the target price to 330 euros from 320 euros. This is due to strength in electrification end-markets and the gradual recovery in automation markets, they say. Shares fall 1.5% to 278 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

1033 GMT - The proportion of fund managers who believe gold is undervalued jumped this month, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August. A net 16% of fund managers surveyed believe the previous metal trades below a fair valuation. This is the highest proportion since March 2023 and up from 6% in July--the first reporting period that a majority of investors said gold was undervalued since 2024, BofA says. Gold contracts have fallen sharply in recent months after peaking above $5,300 a troy ounce in January. However, prices have strengthened so far in August. New York contracts trade down 0.5% at $4,450.30 an ounce Tuesday.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

1030 GMT - Most investors expect the global economy to experience stagflation, or weak growth combined with high inflation, in the next 12 months, Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August shows. Some 49% of investors say they expect stagflation, up from 47% a month ago. However, the proportion of investors expecting a boom scenario of above-trend growth and above-trend inflation rises to 43% in August, compared to 41% in July and the highest since February 2022. The survey also shows a net 14% of investors expect stronger economic growth over the next 12 months, down from 21% last month. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1024 GMT - Investors are more confident in global corporate earnings growth than at any time since August 2021, Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August finds. A net 37% of money managers expect earnings to grow by 10% or more over the next 12 month, the survey says. Investors responded to the survey over the second week of August amid a bumper earnings season that has driven equity markets to record highs. Of the first 440 S&P 500 companies to report earnings, 86% beat analyst estimates, according to FactSet data earlier this month. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

1023 GMT - Speculative bets on a rise in global semiconductor stocks are considered the most crowded trade followed by bets on a weaker Japanese yen, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August. Some 53% of investors say long positions in global semiconductors--which expect these stocks to rise--is the most crowded trade, albeit down from last month's record high of 83%. Short yen positions, which bet on the currency falling, is considered the second most crowded trade with 12% of investors in favor of this view. This is followed closely by long Magnificent Seven, which includes major tech stocks such as Amazon, Apple and Tesla, with 11% of investors considering this the most crowded trade. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1021 GMT - Investor sentiment is at the third most bullish since 2022 this month, according to Bank of America's August global fund manager survey. Cash levels are at an 'uber-low' of 3.5% this month, down from 3.6% last month, while global equity allocation surges to a net 56% overweight, the highest since November 2021, the survey shows. The consensus conviction is a 'no landing' economic scenario--where the economy won't slow down despite high interest rates. Investors don't expect cuts in AI capex, while positioning continues to recommend investors to retreat or rotate within risk assets rather than reload.

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