大摩:Silver Lake洽购Workday,软件股估值已便宜到让PE重新出手

格隆汇
Aug 18
摩根士丹利8月16日研报指出,路透报道PE巨头Silver Lake正洽谈收购Workday,软件板块上周五集体拉升。Workday市值约500亿美元,若按30%-40%溢价收购,估值约为5倍2027年市销率和16倍2027年自由现金流,均低于历史均值。大摩认为这标志着软件股可能已便宜到让PE愿意重新出手,若交易落地将推升板块估值。 研报还指出,开源模型虽压低token价格,但超大规模厂商在自有算力上仍可维持20%-60%的ROIC。投资者调查显示52%预期软件股内部分化加大,看多者约为看空者的两倍。大摩预计Cursor年化ARR年底达80亿美元、2030年达330亿美元,维持对Netcompany减持评级。PE重返收购、开源模型成本分层、投资者信心修复,三信号指向软件板块估值已压缩至临界点。

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