ASX healthcare giant rallies despite a fall in profits

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CSL’s (ASX.CSL) fiscal 2026 underlying earnings fell 2%, in line with the guidance reset in May, and USD 7.1 billion of impairments drove a statutory loss. Fiscal 2027 guidance is for flat revenue and...

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Fiscal 2027 guidance is for flat revenue and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/asx-healthcare-giant-rallies-despite-fall-profits\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"morningstar_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASX healthcare giant rallies despite a fall in profits</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASX healthcare giant rallies despite a fall in profits\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-20 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/asx-healthcare-giant-rallies-despite-fall-profits><strong>Morning Star AU</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CSL’s (ASX.CSL) fiscal 2026 underlying earnings fell 2%, in line with the guidance reset in May, and USD 7.1 billion of impairments drove a statutory loss. Fiscal 2027 guidance is for flat revenue and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/asx-healthcare-giant-rallies-despite-fall-profits\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/asx-healthcare-giant-rallies-despite-fall-profits","article_id":"2660470729","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"morningstar_stock","url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/asx-healthcare-giant-rallies-despite-fall-profits","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2660470729","pubTimestamp":1787155200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"morningstar_stock","name":"Morning Star"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"CSL’s (ASX.CSL) fiscal 2026 underlying earnings fell 2%, in line with the guidance reset in May, and USD 7.1 billion of impairments drove a statutory loss. Fiscal 2027 guidance is for flat revenue and","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"morningstar.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","CGCV":"Capital Group Conservative Equity ETF","NOBL":"ProShares S&P 500 Aristocrats ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VHT":"Vanguard Health Care ETF","CSL.AU":"CSL LIMITED","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","TCAF":"T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF","IXJ":"全球医疗业ETF-iShares","BK7067":"生物科技","BK7511":"ESG概念","BK7508":"医药生物股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"尽管利润下降，澳大利亚证券交易所医疗保健巨头仍上涨","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IXJ":1.5,"VHT":1.5,"CSL.AU":0.9,"NOBL":1.5,"TCAF":1.5,"CGCV":1.5},"content_text":"CSL’s (ASX.CSL) fiscal 2026 underlying earnings fell 2%, in line with the guidance reset in May, and USD 7.1 billion of impairments drove a statutory loss. Fiscal 2027 guidance is for flat revenue and underlying profit growth of about 5%. Shares surged 17% on Aug 18.Why it matters: The rally says more about expectations than the result. After three downgrades in a year, the market was probably braced for a fourth, so merely meeting guidance was enough. Little in the result changes our view of the business.The fiscal 2027 outlook is not demanding: immunoglobulin sales growing in line with the market and Behring margins recouping only what was lost in fiscal 2026. Nonetheless, it marks a return to growth for the core plasma business.Vifor’s guided 25% revenue decline on generic competition is ugly, but it is not the main game. We assume essentially no net growth from Vifor for a decade, and at about 10% of midcycle earnings, it does not move the valuation much either way.The bottom line: We maintain our $165 fair value estimate for narrow-moat CSL, with modestly trimmed revenue offset by lower operating costs. Shares appear fairly valued.Our valuation rests on immunoglobulin revenue compounding at 5% a year over the next decade on flat pricing and rising diagnosis rates, and on plasma gross margins lifting 100 basis points by fiscal 2035 as collection efficiency offsets pricing headwinds.Bulls say: There is upside to our valuation if CSL can deliver anything like the growth it once considered achievable. Two years ago, management said it could maintain double-digit earnings growth in the medium term. This was cut to high single digits, and fiscal 2027 is guided at about 5%.For a Tier 1 player with a cost advantage, there is scope to beat the modest margin gain we forecast. The building blocks are faster donation times, more plasma per donor, and a mix shift to higher-margin products. Indeed, cost per liter is already falling as underperforming centers close.CSL’s core plasma business turning the cornerCSL is one of three Tier 1 plasma therapy companies that benefit from an oligopoly in a highly consolidated market. All the players are vertically integrated, as plasma sourcing is a key constraint in production. The plasma sourcing market is currently largely balanced with demand. CSL is well positioned, having rationalized its plasma collection centers.One major threat to plasma products is recombinant products. Recombinants are quickly replacing plasma products in hemophilia treatment despite being more expensive. CSL has an excellent research and development record and has developed recombinant products for hemophilia. However, we expect modest revenue growth in the hemophilia segment based on competitor Roche’s recombinant Hemlibra.Immunoglobulin product sales are key to CSL. The use of immunoglobulins is currently growing due to improved diagnosis, rising affordability, and gaining approval for increased indications. CSL and competitors are pursuing R&D in Fc receptor-targeting therapy to treat autoimmune diseases.Gene therapy represents the biggest risk to the plasma industry as it aims to cure rather than treat diseases. While the potentially prohibitive cost may result in slow adoption, CSL has strategically expanded its scope via the acquisition of Calimmune in fiscal 2018 and licensing a late-stage hemophilia B gene therapy, Hemgenix, from UniQure in fiscal 2020.CSL is the second-largest influenza vaccine manufacturer, behind Sanofi, and is at the forefront of changes in influenza vaccines, where manufacturing is shifting from egg-based to cell-based culturing.CSL also operates an iron deficiency and nephrology business where the strategy is to increase global access to therapies, receive label expansions, and defend against generic competition.The company evaluates R&D spending based on the commercial outlook. The strategy for CSL Behring has been to target rare diseases, a typically low-volume, high-price, and high-margin business. There is little reimbursement risk in this area or in the vaccine business, Seqirus.Bulls SayCSL is investing in plasma yield initiatives, leaving it well positioned to take advantage of growth opportunities in the key immunoglobulins market.The acquisition of Calimmune’s gene therapy platform in fiscal 2018 and UniQure’s late-stage hemophilia B gene therapy candidate in fiscal 2020 will help defend against emerging competition.CSL has a strong R&D record, and the ongoing rate of investment is ahead of major competitors.Bears SayAreas of the plasma industry could be replaced by newer therapies, which would leave CSL overinvested in plasma collection and fractionation capacity that will be hard to repurpose.Segments such as hemophilia face competitive pressure from Roche’s Hemlibra, which offers more convenient delivery.The R&D pipeline has a highly variable range of outcomes, and R&D spending could ultimately amount to nothing.Subscribe to get Morningstar insights in your inbox","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}