金吾财讯 | 牧业股走高，现代牧业（01117）涨6.34%，优然牧业（09858）涨5.58%。消息面上，广发证券表示，随着散奶价格超过合同奶价，主产区合同奶价开启上行，行业已经进入涨价周期。随着前期产能去化、牛群老龄化的影响在未来显现，供给或面临实际缺口。此外，下游乳制品深加工有望提供新的需求增量，从需求端支撑奶价。原奶价格拐点已现，继续看好后续原奶价格周期上行。肉牛方面，当前国内牛存栏处于历史低位，根据统计局数据，截止26年2季度末，全国牛存栏为9557万头，同比减少4.3%。肉牛供给继续收缩，进口牛肉受制于配额制政策，预计肉牛价格继续上行，增加牧业公司业绩弹性。另外，国金证券看好国内牧业大周期反转，海内外肉牛及原奶景气有望共振上行。
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