金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，淡季纸企提价阶段性落地，7月箱板及瓦楞纸价格、出货情况及库存同比皆有改善。进口再生浆缩量、国废成本上行，短期纸价下方空间有限，箱板瓦楞纸周期筑底信号显著。建议关注旺季需求表现及8月纸企提价落地节奏。短期看行业吨利仍处底部修复阶段。7月瓦楞纸利润354元/吨，环比+1.1%；箱板纸利润482元/吨，环比-8.4%，利润环比收窄，纸价上行幅度弱于成本增幅（隆众资讯）。若后续旺季提价持续落地，纸价上行有望继续缓解成本端压力，带动行业盈利进一步修复。长期看，龙头不断夯实林/浆自给产业链布局下的成本优势、推进多纸种及高端化布局，利润端兼具韧性及弹性。该机构建议自上而下关注顺周期弹性、具备浆纸一体化成本优势的规模龙头。
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