中信期货:纪要鹰派不及预期叠加长端利率快速回落,黄金重新获得政策与实际利率共振支撑

智通财经
Aug 20
【中信期货:纪要鹰派不及预期叠加长端利率快速回落,黄金重新获得政策与实际利率共振支撑】FOMC会议纪要确认,美联储内部确有明显鹰派声音,但支持7月直接加息的仅为“数名”委员,距离多数仍有较大差距,弱于此前市场对鹰派广泛扩散的预期。与此同时,“许多”委员仍担忧持续高通胀可能影响通胀预期和工资定价,说明进一步加息并未完全退出政策选项。 更重要的变化来自长端利率。美国财政部意外宣布至少翻倍10—30年期国债流动性回购规模,长期美债收益率随即快速下降,美元同步走弱。黄金因此一度上涨近4%,突破4500美元关口。当前市场交易的核心已经从单纯判断美联储是否加息,转向美国政策是否通过干预债券市场压低实际融资成本。 地缘风险则进一步强化这一结构。美伊谈判前景恶化使油价和通胀风险仍处高位,但财政部对长端债券市场的支持阶段性削弱了“油价上涨—长端收益率上升”的传导。黄金因此同时获得低利率、弱美元以及地缘和政策不确定性溢价支撑。

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