金吾财讯 | 微博（WB）盘中股价下跌5.54%，暂报7.08美元，成交额921.01万美元。消息面上，广发证券研究指，微博今年策略聚焦扩充产品能力和内容生态，例如扶持创作者，以及在产品上做视频化功能的打磨，考虑长期发展维持合理的用户获取和AI投入，导致短期利润率略有下探，该机构预计2026-27年收入达17.7亿/18.0亿美元，同增0.8%/1.9%。2026-27年经调整归母净利润预计为3.57/4.07亿美元，同比下滑19%和增长14%。参考互联网媒体平台可比公司估值，考虑广告业务待宏观驱动复苏，给予26年经调整归母净利润8倍PE，认为合理价值为11.62美元/ADS（91.14港元/股），维持“买入”评级。里昂亦认为，微博在宏观逆风下，第二季业绩胜于预期，惟第三季需面对多重挑战，预期将显著拖累表现。该行预期微博第三季总收入按年减少4%，预料毛利率跌至70%以下，及经调整经营溢利率料16%。该行下调微博2026及27年经调整纯利预测13%及6%，以反映多项投资需求，又将微博美股目标价由8.5美元降至8美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。
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