瑞穗预计日本央行将加快加息步伐

格隆汇
Aug 19
瑞穗全球市场部门联席主管越水健也表示,日本央行最快可能在9月再次加息,并可能将政策调整频率从目前约每半年一次提高至每三个月一次。越水称,日元疲软和通胀压力正推动日本央行加快行动,不排除今年年底前加息两次,使政策利率升至1.5%。市场目前预计日本央行9月18日加息概率为78%。他表示,瑞穗将继续采取保守的日本国债投资策略,仅关注通胀挂钩债券和短期国债。尽管10年期日债收益率已升至30年高位,但仍低于日本约4%的名义经济增长率。越水认为,全球结构变化和投资增长可能进一步推高日本中性利率,同时通胀风险仍偏向上行。对于日元,他称美日联合干预反映双方不希望日元继续贬值,但日元疲软部分源于日本宽松货币政策。他预计日本经济正经历数十年来的重要转型,日本股市仍具吸引力,但金融市场波动可能加剧。

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