Tiger Brokers

猪肉概念股强势 德康农牧（02419）涨6.95% 机构指猪价存在上行基础

金吾财讯
Aug 18

金吾财讯 | 猪肉概念股强势，德康农牧（02419）涨6.95%，中粮家佳康（01610）涨5.45%，牧原股份（02714）涨3.90%，万洲国际（00288）涨1.56%。华福证券表示，展望后市，高肥标差下行业存在压栏增重的主观意愿，但高温天气显著制约生猪增重效率，供应压力短期释放有限，叠加立秋后消费增量，猪价震荡偏强，猪价仍处于季节性反弹通道中。长江期货表示，短期肥标价差走扩，低位二次育肥入尝养殖端缩量惜售情绪升温，叠加政策托底，对猪价形成底部支撑。但8月规模场出栏环比增加，前期压栏及二育猪源仍存在集中出栏风险，终端消费跟进不足，供强需弱格局下猪价反弹空间受限，需重点跟踪养殖端出栏及二育进退节奏。中长期看，8月后供给有望边际回落，叠加立秋降温、开学季、中秋国庆备货等带动消费季节性修复，猪价存在上行基础。不过6月末能繁母猪存栏仍略高于合理保有量，出栏均重、冻品库存偏高将对冲供给收缩，对明年一季度前的涨价空间保持谨慎。行业持续亏损倒逼产能出清，6月能繁母猪存栏已逼近合理保有量。叠加局部灾害扰动、市场预期环保监管趋严，落后产能淘汰节奏或进一步加快，明年二季度供给收缩预期抬升，远期猪价存在上涨修复机会，后续跟踪产能去化节奏。

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