中信证券:科技股近期的调整不能简单归因于美国长债利率高企

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【中信证券:科技股近期的调整不能简单归因于美国长债利率高企】中信证券研报认为,科技股近期的调整不能简单归因于美国长债利率高企,调整的背后是AI相关股票的远期定价问题,有三个关键叙事变量:1)商业化的速率和空间是否跟得上市场预期;2)算力优势是不是带来份额和定价权优势;3)当期的算力差距是否会明显拉开远期的AI模型差距。这其中当前共识性担忧是商业化的速率和空间,最大的潜在变量是“防蒸馏”是否在未来会重新拉大模型差距。至于宏观因素,美国财政部宣布回购长债的影响十分有限,不过短期内美元走弱和加息预期的走弱都有利于全球市场K型分化的收敛。然而,造成美国长端利率持续上行的因素并没有发生根本性变化,未来一段时间可能还会出现持续扰动。在这些外部扰动影响下,A股短期内的资金结构决定了市场博弈的复杂性还在提升,这种震荡市阶段要控制心理预期,避免过多的宏大叙事。

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