供应库存双重收缩大摩上调布伦特原油四季度价格预期

金吾财讯

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金吾财讯 | 全球原油市场出现供应缩减、库存水平下行的现象，油市整体格局逐步走向收紧。摩根士丹利延长中东地区原油供应恢复时间预期，同步上调布伦特原油价格预测。报告发布阶段布伦特原油现货价格大约为每桶92美元，对比前期低点已经实现一定幅度反弹，机构认为原油供给下行，叠加中东地区原油流通环节潜在长期扰动，是推动油价上行的核心驱动要素。撰稿统计时点，WTI原油期货下跌1.8%，报85.48美元，布伦特期货下跌1.39%，报93.04美元。库存端数据能够直观体现油市紧化的过程，自7月13日到报告发布时间，油兑水量合计减少1.68亿桶，折算日均去库规模大约470万桶，陆上原油库存同步出现回落。中东地区原油出口规模已经回落至当年3-4月份的水平，美国战略石油储备释放带来的缓冲空间不断收窄，市场预计该储备投放行为将在9月之后正式结束。摩根士丹利判断中东原油供应恢复过程会延续到2027年，2026年第四季度到2027年第一季度，原油市场会持续处在供应缺口的逆差状态，机构将2026年第四季度布伦特原油目标价格上调至每桶100美元。报告同时提及，现阶段炼油端相关约束条件，一定程度压制原油直接需求，不过炼油行业盈利水平创下历史纪录，布伦特原油现货维持92美元附近，油价仍然存在上行空间。

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