ChainCatcher 消息,灰度研究主管 Zach Pandl 发文表示,通常不建议投资者试图择时,但从结构性采用趋势、市场周期及宏观风险三个方面判断,当前比特币价格可能为具有长期投资视野的投资者提供较有利的入场点。灰度认为,政府债务持续增长、区块链技术在金融服务领域的应用扩大,以及投资组合构建的代际变化,表明比特币的长期采用趋势仍然稳固。
目前本轮比特币熊市已持续约 10 个月,而此前熊市通常持续 11 至 12 个月,市场可能已进入熊市后期。宏观环境仍是主要不确定因素。若美联储近期加息,比特币可能进一步下跌;若不加息,市场或已触及底部。灰度表示,结构性采用、周期位置和整体宏观前景目前均相对有利,但未来表现仍无法确定。
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