券商分析师研判: 全球货币周期或转向紧缩 资产配置逻辑深刻变化

智通财经
6 hours ago
【券商分析师研判: 全球货币周期或转向紧缩 资产配置逻辑深刻变化】美国长期国债收益率为何居高不下?国盛证券首席经济学家熊园指出,一方面,美国高赤字意味着未来久期供给中枢趋于抬升,AI资本开支扩张带来大量高评级、长久期公司债供给,与美债竞争长期资金;另一方面,海外官方部门等传统长债买家的边际承接能力下降,而美联储抗通胀信誉受损、美国财政可持续性等担忧进一步推高期限溢价。需要注意的是,与2022年主要由央行快速加息推动的“债熊”不同,当前更像是对长期利率中枢和久期风险补偿的重新定价。中信证券研究部全球大类资产配置首席分析师余经纬亦认为,美债利率上行短期有三重催化:中东冲突升级推高油价、对沃什领导的美联储紧缩的担忧、科技巨头发债分流美债资金的预期上升。余经纬预计,在美国经济不会陷入衰退的假设下,美债利率仍然持续面临高通胀和宽松停止的双重冲击。

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