Global government bond yields fell Monday, helped by declining oil prices and as investors anticipate that further measures from the U.S. Treasury are possible to tame high yields.
The U.S. Treasury last week doubled the volume of long-end debt buybacks after yields rose to multiyear highs. On Monday, a slight decline in global bond yields has been helped by lower oil prices even as the prospect of a peace deal in the Middle East remains elusive, while traffic via the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted.
"We would not dismiss the potential impact of further Treasury actions, particularly since policymakers have now signaled a greater willingness to intervene if market conditions deteriorate," UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 3.4 basis points to 4.702%, while the 30-year yield, which hit a 19-year high of 5.337% last week, last traded 3.9 basis points lower at 5.236%, according to Tradeweb.
The 10-year German Bund yield declined 2.1 basis points to 3.237%, nonetheless staying close to a 15-year high of 3.275% reached last week. The 10-year U.K. gilt last traded 1.2 basis points lower at 5.044%.
The price of Brent oil fell 1.4% to $93.11 a barrel.
The Treasury doubling long-end debt buybacks to at least $4 billion per auction from $2 billion triggered a recovery in long-dated bonds. However, this proved short-lived as investors remained concerned that underlying problems remained, including mounting U.S. debt and the fiscal deficit.
"While this morning's consolidation is encouraging, a lasting turnaround seems unlikely for now as there is no easy fix to the underlying drivers," Hauke Siemssen, rates strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. "Bond markets remain vulnerable as oil prices are still elevated and fiscal fears are mounting."
Still, Mizuho "would not fight the Treasury's resolve," the bank's rates strategist Evelyne Gomez-Liechti said in a note. The increased buyback decision shows the authorities' discomfort with long-term yields, she said.
"That should place some ceiling on the long end and cap how far any renewed steepening can run, even if it does not mark the start of a sustained duration rally."
The U.S. Treasury has unlikely said its last word on Treasury yields yet.
"Given the importance of yields for the voters and for the markets, we would not be surprised if we see more measures beyond the buybacks over the coming weeks," said Mohit Kumar, global economist at Jefferies in a note.
"It is likely that the first long end buyback operation post 9th September could see a size much larger than the $4 billion to give a signal to the market," he said. Talk of changes to the regulation for banks or pension funds could be floated as a signal to control the long end of the curve, Kumar added.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to give details on U.S. plans to increase economic pressure on Iran Monday.
In the coming days, investors will focus on the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium between Aug. 27 and Aug. 29. for fresh input on how authorities aim to tackle elevated U.S. Treasury yields. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a keynote speech on Friday.
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