花旗下调美元短期预期,警告美债回购及政治风险将施压汇价

智通财经
Aug 21
【花旗下调美元短期预期,警告美债回购及政治风险将施压汇价】花旗集团货币策略师团队近期对美元短期走势转为悲观,将未来三个月的美元指数预测值从102.12大幅下调至98.34。策略师丹尼尔·托邦在周四发布的研报中指出,美国财政部计划在11月份将10至30年期国债回购规模扩大一倍,此举将通过压低长端收益率以及引发市场对“金融抑制”的担忧,给美元带来新的下行压力。此前,美国财政部长贝森特为降低长期借贷成本而采取的最新举措已引发市场关注,花旗警告称,遏制收益率的努力可能会使美元承受压力,美元指数也一度跌至5月以来的最低水平。不过,花旗并未改变其对美元的长期看法,认为美国经济增长前景依然优于十国集团其他成员国。此外,美伊冲突及人工智能相关的大规模资本支出引发的通胀担忧,仍是未来美元走势的潜在风险点。在主要非美货币方面,花旗上调了欧元的短期预期。基于欧洲央行将在9月份加息25个基点的预期,以及市场对美联储加息预期的减弱,花旗将未来三个月欧元/美元的预测上调至1.1750。截至周四纽约时间中午,该货币对在1.17附近交投,走势相对平稳。

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