The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
2223 ET - Petronas Chemicals' robust 2026 outlook seems priced in to Kenanga Investment Bank. The investment bank is also unconvinced that the chemicals market is entering a multiyear structural upward trend. While 2H earnings are expected to benefit from higher plant utilization and elevated product prices, 2026 is viewed as the likely earnings peak, analyst Lim Sin Kiat says in a note. Product prices are expected to weaken in 2027 as Middle East supply normalizes and new Chinese capacity adds to global supply, he writes. Kenanga maintains a market-perform rating on Petronas Chemicals and keeps the target price at 4.24 ringgit. Shares are 2.1% lower at 4.59 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2138 ET - Petronas Chemicals' 2H earnings will likely be supported by higher plant operating rates, although normalizing petrochemical prices and still-weak downstream demand may limit margin expansion, TA Securities analyst Luqman Anwar says in a note. Plant utilization is expected to recover to 80%-85% in 3Q and about 93% in 4Q following major turnarounds in 2Q, he notes. Fertilizer and methanol will likely remain the key earnings anchor, supported by resilient urea demand, food-security needs and tighter global supply, he reckons. However, a repeat of the sharp 2Q price surge is unlikely, while olefins and derivatives prices could face further pressure from weak demand and structural oversupply, he adds. TA Securities maintains a sell rating on Petronas Chemicals, keeps target price at 4.32 ringgit. Shares are 1.9% lower at 4.60 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2126 ET - Gold declines in Asian trade. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting released Wednesday seemed to reveal broader support for interest rate increases, as more Fed officials favored raising rates last month than the three who formally dissented. Other officials also signaled they would back an increase if inflation doesn't improve. A higher-interest rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets such as gold. Still, while the minutes leaned hawkish, ING's James Knightley expects the Fed to remain on hold well into 2027. Fed officials who voted for no rate hikes would need stronger U.S. jobs numbers and more elevated inflation to be convinced, but the economist doesn't see such data materializing. Spot gold falls 0.6% to $4,494.52 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2108 ET - Citi expects downside risk to FY27 earnings estimates for gold miner Northern Star. That is primarily due to weaker-than-anticipated forecast production and higher-than-expected costs. The company's Yandal and Pogo mines are the main sources of cost pressures, with all-in sustaining cost forecasts higher than Citi's expectations by 18% and 16%, respectively, the bank says. "Investor focus now shifts to KCGM ramp-up execution, whether Yandal's higher-cost base persists beyond FY27 and any changes in strategic direction under the incoming CEO and refreshed board," Citi says. It has a neutral rating and A$24.30 target on Northern Star. Shares are up 8.2% at A$24.38. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2101 ET - Petronas Chemicals may not be able to repeat its 2026 performance in 2027-2028, raising the risk of a de-rating as earnings growth tapers, Maybank IB analyst Jeremie Yap says in a note. The petrochemical cycle is expected to weaken as product prices normalize further from recent peaks, potentially leading to declining profits in 2027-2028, he says. Still, the potential disposal of Petronas Chemicals' remaining 50% stake in unit Pengerang Petrochemical could be an upside risk, boosting annual profit by about 1 billion ringgit if completed, he adds. Maybank cuts Petronas Chemicals' target price to 3.66 ringgit from 3.92 ringgit, while maintaining a sell rating on the stock. Shares are 0.6% higher at 4.72 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2044 ET - Resolute Mining's 1H net profit of A$128.2 million is 19% below consensus due to non-cash depreciation and inventory moves, says Barrenjoey. Ebitda is broadly in line with expectations, it says. "No group dividend as expected with all available FCF [free cash flow] being channelled into the development of Doropo and exploration at ABC," the bank says. Barrenjoey has an overweight rating on Resolute, with a target of A$1.60/share. The stock is up 8.6% at A$1.27. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1949 ET - Fortescue's FY dividend, at 1.08 Australian dollars a share, is a touch below market expectations of A$1.12/share or a 67% payout, says RBC Capital Markets. "The 65% payout is the mid-point of FMG's dividend policy of a 50-80% payout," RBC notes. Underlying Ebitda of US$8.64 billion is 2% higher than consensus, and guidance is maintained, the broker says. RBC has a sector perform rating and A$20.00/share target on Fortescue. The stock ended Wednesday at A$18.06. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
Northern Star's FY27 guidance is softer than consensus, but better than the market feared, says Barrenjoey. "Of course NST has had a poor recent history of meeting guidance, so management will need to convince market this is credible," Barrenjoey says. Production guidance of 1.50 million to 1.65 million ounces, at its midpoint, is 2% below consensus. All-in sustaining cost guidance, at A$3,050-A$3,450/ounce, is 8% above consensus. A growth capital expenditure estimate of A$1.70 billion to A$2.02 billion is 4% below consensus. Barrenjoey has a neutral rating and A$26.50/share target on Northern Star. Shares ended Wednesday at A$22.54.