华泰证券港股策略:金融和AH溢价仍有改善空间

格隆汇
5 hours ago
华泰证券研报称,市场对港股中期走势受基本面影响的程度分歧不大,关键变量在全球流动性环境。华泰证券认为,美元因公信力挑战转弱、人民币升值强化,有助于港股AH溢价再度收窄及香港金融资产重估。但对总体市场而言,本轮弱美元所处背景并非去年全球金融条件宽松和risk-on环境,流动性环境偏紧方向并未改变。海外10年美债利率大概率高位震荡,日元再度外汇干预或加息都有可能发生,8月央行年会是关注重点。香港在海外提短端控长端思路及港元汇率偏弱的情况下,HIBOR有可能进一步上行。因流动性难有增量支持,财报季尚未被充分定价,盈利兑现度更为重要。配置上维持均衡:低波红利(如银行)为底仓;关注中报或确认经营底部的乳品、部分零售;AI链(如晶圆代工)定位进攻品种、小仓位参与超跌反弹;CXO和创新药龙头兑现度高但短期性价比下降,行情斜率或放缓。

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