关于半导体的判断，行情性质为反转而非反弹，但短期即将迎来考验。
今日盘中半导体一度拉高上涨1.5%，力度较昨日增强，但随后出现下跌并伴随放量。这是一个较为明显的信号——有资金在高位进行兑现。当前位置处于第二浪回调中的B浪反弹阶段，且该反弹已近末尾，预计最多还剩一至两个交易日的延续空间，之后大概率将进入C浪下跌。策略上，拉高应视为做T或降仓位的窗口，而非开仓机会。B浪反弹的目的在于降低仓位，等待C浪下跌后的低点再进行介入。
大盘方面，今日延续修复性上涨，但属于缩量上涨，表明场外资金跟进意愿不足，仍以存量资金博弈为主。大盘同样处于B浪反弹阶段，尚未完全结束，上方压力位在3930点附近。操作上不必过度抠细节，到达心理价位即可执行做T操作。
资金面上，机构资金今日持续流入逾300亿元，大资金仍处于低位进场阶段。但每次拉高均被量化资金利用做T离场，半导体板块每逢拉升便有资金兑现，盘面承压明显。当前调整过程已走过约一半，下周的C浪下跌才是真正考验，待该轮调整完成之后，市场压力有望缓解。
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