三井住友:日本央行的政策利率峰值不太可能达到2%

格隆汇
Aug 21
三井住友日兴证券的经济学家表示,日本央行很可能在9月份的下次会议上将政策利率从目前的1%上调至1.25%。他们指出,预计日本央行随后将在2027年1月和6月再次加息,最终政策利率达到1.75%。他们补充道:“明年夏季之后,进口驱动的通胀压力预计将会减弱,因此日本央行不太可能将政策利率上调至2%——这一水平高于市场对中性利率的平均估计。”隔夜指数掉期市场目前显示,日本央行9月份加息的概率为84%,并且预计到2027年初还将加息两次。

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