Steel Stocks Jump as U.S.-Canada Tariff Fight Escalates

Dow Jones
Yesterday

U.S. steel stocks are early winners in the escalating trade spat between the U.S. and Canada.

Shares of Steel Dynamics were up 3.6% in early trading. Nucor stock was up 4.3%. Cleveland-Cliffs shares gained 7.1%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%.

The moves came after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on almost $30 billion in Canadian goods after trade talks between the two nations broke down over the weekend.

"Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years," President Donald Trump said on Truth Social. "On January 1, 2027, Tariffs on all cars, trucks, both large and small, automotive parts, and steel will be increased to 50%."

Steel isn't on the list of products hit by the latest tariffs (hockey equipment is), but the trade talks were partially designed to resolve disputes over steel and aluminum tariffs on Canadian products.

U.S. buyers of Canadian steel are paying tariffs in the range of 25%. Several factors can modify the tariff rate. The base global rate the U.S. has imposed on imported steel is in the range of 50%.

To be sure, currencies can offset some trade headwinds. The Canadian dollar was down about a penny against the U.S. dollar in early trading on Monday. The Loonie, Canada's dollar coin, was worth about 72 cents U.S., down from 73 cents this past week. Over the past year, it has been stable. Over the past five years, it's weakened a little against the dollar.

Weaker foreign currencies lower the cost for American buyers of foreign goods. Many factors, of course, impact currencies beyond trade, such as local interest rates and the strength of domestic economies.

Coming into Monday trading, Steel Dynamics shares were up 35% year-to-date. Nucor shares were up 49%. Cleveland-Cliffs stock was the laggard, down about 15%.

Higher steel prices have helped most of the stocks. Benchmark steel prices are at about $1,200 per ton, up from about $800 a year ago.

Steel Dynamics is expected to make an operating profit of about $3.2 billion in 2026, up from $1.5 billion in 2025. Wall Street expects stable profits for the coming few years. Steel Dynamics made an operating profit of $5 billion in 2022, and 2025 was the weakest annual profit since the pandemic.

 

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