金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利策略师Andrew Sheets指出，美国联邦债务规模累计约40万亿美元，政府债务持续走高并未抑制企业融资热潮，家庭消费同样展现较强韧性。美国近半数联邦债务为过去十年新增，全球主要经济体政府债务占GDP比重普遍抬升，除英国外，多数国家财政赤字维持高位，政府发债规模将持续处在较高区间。利率上行环境下美国企业资产负债表整体稳健，企业债务占GDP比重较十年前变动有限，低于疫情前水平，机构预判今年企业债发行规模有望刷新历史纪录，高收益率难以打断本轮企业融资浪潮。居民端财务状况同样健康，家庭债务占GDP比重67%，低于2000年70%以及2019年74%，利率抬升并未削弱家庭消费能力。市场核心风险在于高债息能否驱动资金从股票转向债券。当前30年期美债收益率超出预期通胀约300个基点，长期投资级债券收益率达到6.2%。现阶段资金大规模切换尚未发生，10年期美债收益率上行约50个基点背景下，标普500年内依旧上涨13%，强劲盈利支撑股市对抗高债息。后续核心观察点为企业盈利能否延续韧性，一旦盈利增速回落，高收益率将对股票估值形成显著压力。
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