Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole, U.S. PCE Data in Focus

Dow Jones
2 hours ago
 
 

Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Aug. 24.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will be the key event for investors as they continue to seek clarity on whether and when U.S. interest rates might rise.

U.S. PCE inflation data will also be watched closely as this is the Fed's favored measure of inflation.

In Europe, regional inflation and sentiment data are due.

In Asia, a trio of central bank decisions headline the week as the Middle East crisis keeps the heat up on inflation. The biggest question mark is over whether the Bank of Korea will choose to raise interest rates again, as strong economic growth combines with higher prices. Inflation data from Australia and Japan will be closely watched too.

 

U.S.

 

Fed Chairman Warsh is due to speak at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium, which takes place between Aug. 27 and Aug. 29 and will see a number of major central bank speakers.

The key will be whether he provides any clues on the timing of when interest rates might rise, although Warsh has so far shied away from giving any forward guidance. U.S. money markets are currently almost fully pricing a 25 basis-point rate increase by December.

"Given Warsh's ideological reluctance to provide guidance, we do not expect the chair to change his approach toward discussing the outlook," TD Securities' strategists said in a note.

If Warsh provides some guidance for markets this "could allow investors to breathe a mild sigh of relief." However, investors could be disappointed, they said.

"The market will be looking for clues around his reaction function and a reaffirmation of the Fed's inflation-fighting credentials."

Warsh's speech follows a week in which long-dated U.S. government bond yields jumped to multiyear highs, leading the U.S. Treasury to announce it was doubling the buyback volume of long-end nominal securities to at least $4 billion per operation, which stabilized markets.

Beyond Jackson Hole, Wednesday's release of July PCE inflation data--the Fed's preferred measure of inflation-will be the most closely-watched piece of economic data. The second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product and July durable goods figures will be released on the same day.

Other data include Case-Shiller house-price data for June, new home sales for July and the Conference Board consumer confidence index for August on Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims are released Thursday and the University of Michigan final consumer sentiment survey for August on Friday.

Bond auctions will remain in focus too. The Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.

 

Canada

 

Canadian second-quarter gross domestic product data are due on Friday.

"We look for a strong rebound in second-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% annualized after three down quarters out of the previous four," said ING economist James Knightley in a note.

"We look for an improvement in the net trade position and a stronger performance from consumer spending and a big rebound in investment following the 4.3% drop in the first quarter," he said.

Concerns about steep U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods have eased after Canada avoided the threat of a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of its U.S.-bound exports.

 

Eurozone

 

Flash-estimate French and Spanish CPI inflation data for August on Friday will feature in the eurozone's busy end-of-month economic data releases.

"Increases in oil and European natural gas prices also mean this strengthening may soon be tested by higher inflation adding to the hit to disposable incomes," Ricardo Amaro, lead economist at Oxford Economics said in a note.

"Our modelling suggests eurozone headline inflation could rise above 3.5% later this year if current energy prices persist," he said.

The CPI data will be closely watched ahead of the European Central Bank's next rate-setting meeting on Sept. 10.

"It's looking increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will deliver on our expectation for a rate hike to 2.5% in September and stay hawkish beyond then," Amaro said.

Money markets price in a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in September, according to LSEG, which would bring the deposit rate to 2.50%.

These data come on top of detailed second-quarter German GDP data on Tuesday and French GDP data on Friday, as well as a number of sentiment surveys. Germany's ifo business indicator and France's consumer confidence surveys, both for August, are scheduled for Tuesday, and are followed by Germany's forward-looking GfK consumer climate survey for September on Thursday and the European Commission's business and consumer surveys for August on Friday.

Germany's labor market statistics are due on Friday, while the accounts of the European Central Bank July meeting are scheduled for release on Thursday.

Germany and Italy will each conduct two bond auctions. Germany will tap the September 2028 Schatz on Tuesday, while it will reopen May 2041- and August 2048-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Italy's auctions are scheduled for Wednesday and Friday. Belgium will hold an auction on Monday.

 

U.K.

 

August's Nationwide house price index is the only major U.K. economic data release in the coming week.

The U.K. is due to auction gilts maturing in 2033 on Tuesday.

 

Scandinavia

 

Minutes to the Riksbank's policy meeting on August 19 are due on Tuesday. Sweden's central bank left rates unchanged at 1.75% at this meeting and said a rate rise later this year remains a possibly.

Norway second-quarter gross domestic product data are due Thursday, followed by the same data for Sweden on Friday. Norwegian and Swedish retail sales figures for July are released Friday.

Sweden will hold a bond auction Wednesday.

 

Hungary

 

Hungary's central bank announces an interest-rate decision on Tuesday, where it could cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.50%, particularly given recent weak inflation data.

"We continue to expect more easing in the fourth quarter to 5.0%, provided the government's fiscal plans are positive and well received," HSBC economists said in a note.

 

Japan

 

Yen and bond action is in focus for Japan watchers as currency weakness threatens to fan inflation and fiscal concerns drive yields higher.

On Thursday, markets will comb through a speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino for clues on whether the central bank will raise its policy rate in September or October.

"With a hike already largely priced in, traders appear more focused on whether the BOJ accelerates tightening, while intervention risk, U.S. yields and higher oil prices add to an increasingly complicated backdrop for JPY," said Matt Simpson at StoneX.

On Friday, attention turns to August consumer price figures for the Tokyo metropolitan area that will indicate if higher oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict are filtering through to broader consumer costs. Jobs data for July is also due Friday.

On the bond front, the BOJ is scheduled to make outright purchases of three sectors of Japan's government debt on Thursday. These consist of sovereign securities with tenors of more than three years and up to five years, those with tenors of more than 10 years and up to 25 years, and inflation-indexed bonds. The purchases are expected to provide support to the domestic bond market.

The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 250 billion yen ($1.57 billion) of 10-year climate transition JGBs on Monday, and 2.8 trillion yen of two-year sovereign notes on Friday. The sale of climate securities might be attractive to investors as they offer robust institutional backing and policy-linked bank collateral perks.

 

China

 

A quiet data calendar is in store for China as summer draws to an end. Thursday's release of industrial profit figures are the sole indicator of note.

Markets will look to that for insight into how corporate finances are faring amid persistently weak domestic consumption and surging exports, a trend reinforced by July's economic activity figures.

Economists at ING expect a solid recovery in profits, as technology-related sectors such as computer, communications and electronic-equipment manufacturers continue to outperform in exports due to AI. Chinese energy and commodities firms, particularly those focused on coal mining and oil and gas extraction, also delivered strong first-half profit growth as energy prices rose due to the crisis in the Middle East, ING said.

Any developments in trade talks between China and the U.S will also draw attention ahead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's expected visit to Washington, D.C., in September.

 

Australia/New Zealand

 

The week ahead in Australia will focus almost exclusively on the release of July inflation data on Wednesday.

Since policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia are still warning that inflation remains too high and further interest-rate increases can't be ruled out, any upside surprise could cause money markets to increase bets on a further hike in the official cash rate before the end of the year.

The release of minutes from the RBA's last policy meeting on Tuesday is likely to be uneventful given that both the bank's governor and deputy governor have spoken publicly since the decision to leave interest rates on hold. It would be difficult for the minutes to add to their hawkish messaging.

In New Zealand, second-quarter retail sales data on Monday will point the way to the strength of GDP growth, and say a lot about how consumers are responding to higher fuel prices, and global uncertainty.

Business surveys and electronic card transactions suggest reasonable growth in nominal sales during the quarter. Vehicle sales have been solid, but sharply higher prices could result in minimal growth in volumes.

 

South Korea

 

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