金吾财讯 | 美银首席策略师迈克尔·哈特内特发布研报警告称，如果美国财政部无法有效拉低长期美债收益率，美元汇率将面临下行压力，且在即将到来的11月中期选举前夕，风险资产或将迎来一波空头反扑。美国财政部此前宣布将“至少翻倍”长期国债的回购规模。哈特内特领导的团队在报告中指出，这一大幅扩大的债务回购计划本质上是一种“类量化宽松”手段，旨在化解美债及人工智能（AI）融资环境面临的威胁，属于典型的“贝森特期权”。然而，市场对美债庞大供给及政府债务扩张的担忧并未根除。本周，美国30年期国债收益率一度冲高至近20年来的高位（目前维持在5.2%附近），10年期收益率亦触及高点。哈特内特直言，若财政部长斯科特·贝森特“无法将30年期美债收益率拉回5%以下”，未来几周内，美元可能出现下挫，同时市场对AI超大规模数据中心、私募信贷以及金融板块等高杠杆风险资产的做空情绪将显著升温。
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