【华泰证券谈全球存储：LTA定下限，回购看比例】据华泰证券，回顾2Q26，三星/海力士/美光/闪迪/铠侠五家合计总收入2,274亿美元、营业利润1,475亿美元，环比+70%，收入和利润均处历史高位。但价格涨幅已开始放缓，Samsung披露DRAM blended ASP环比由1Q26的约low-90%降至2Q26的mid-40%，TrendForce预计3Q26 server DRAM合约价环比上涨13–18%。按P/B与ROE的方向组合，本轮已进入“盈利仍在上行、估值先行回落”的第二段，市场关注点正从盈利上修空间转向盈利下限在哪里，重点关注：1）长协。若2027年ASP降至较2Q26低约40%的地板价水平，对应行业2027E PE约14x；2）股东回报。海力士已将2025–2027年FCF回报目标上调至超过50%，关注韩系后续payout ratio提升；3）长期需求。AI存储需求由HBM向更完整的memory/storage hierarchy扩散。综合考虑长约的价格保护机制、回购力度与供需稳定性三条标准，我们给出五家公司的关注顺序。
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