国泰君安期货:本轮黄金白银的上涨是有明确的信息推动叠加资金连续入场的共同结果

智通财经
Aug 21
【国泰君安期货:本轮黄金白银的上涨是有明确的信息推动叠加资金连续入场的共同结果】本轮黄金白银的上涨是有明确的信息推动叠加资金连续入场的共同结果。周三夜间日美国财政部将10 30年期长期国债单次回购规模由20亿美元提升至40亿美元,具体来说力度有限,该操作主体为财政部,并非美联储QE,不新增基础货币。并且单次操作体量相对于整体存量占比偏低,工具定位重在修复长债旧券的二级市场流动性,缓解远端收益率脉冲上行风险,难以扭转美债供给的大格局。消息公布后,30Y美债收益率快速下跌,金价也顺利突破阶段性前高并短暂站上4500。本身这个政策不足以独立驱动金价趋势行情,但信号传导和市场解读乐观。周四夜间贝森特加大“TACO”力度,表示债券回购上限或超40亿美元,黄金白银继续快速拉涨,白银突破周线级别上的阻力,顺利站上年线,黄金也是稳居4500美元/盎司上方。叠加昨日单日ETF快速流入,资金及针对贵金属的情绪已然给出了方向,短期黄金若站稳4500美元/盎司则进一步关注4600-4700区间,白银在技术面破位之后则是进一步看向71.5美元/盎司附近,对应沪银17300-17500元/千克。周三夜间突破4450美元后推荐顺势追入的黄金多头继续持有。

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