金吾财经 | 中国银河证券表示，云巨头资本开支持续加码，算力基建需求具备长期刚性支撑，光模块厂商订单饱满，结构优化：光通信的高成长性并非短期脉冲，而是建立在海外云巨头持续且加码的资本开支之上，行业供需紧平衡格局有望延续。2026年海外四大云厂商指引区间（7200-7450亿美元）较年初（6950-7250亿美元）进一步抬升，谷歌、亚马逊2026自然年资本开支预期上调幅度相对较大，微软虽然因会计政策调低表观资本开支预期，但仍保持实际投资计划不变；1H26四家CSP整体资本开支达成率约39.29%-40.65%，预示2H26资本开支规模将较1H26规模提升45.99%-54.52%，反映出云厂商对基础设施建设的长期承诺，资本开支的持续性为AI算力底座提供坚实支撑以及对AI行业的乐观预期；在下游旺盛需求的拉动下，光模块行业订单高度明确，高端光模块的交付能力已成为核心稀缺资源。随着AI集群带宽需求增长以及速率的进一步提升或将带动“光进铜退”进程的进一步加速，光接口向NPO、CPO演进，高毛利新品的逐步导入或将持续拉动产业链盈利中枢上移。
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