沃什讲话后 交易员预计美联储9月加息的概率约为50%

环球市场播报
Aug 28

  除了为未来几个月可能加息两次做准备外,交易员目前还预计,美联储最快在9月16日举行的下一次FOMC会议上加息的概率达到50%。颇具讽刺意味的是,美联储主席凯文·沃什周五更偏鹰派的基调,已成功将市场利率预期推回到大致与其7月29日新闻发布会后相当的水平,而当时短期收益率曾下跌。

  沃什讲话前,SOFR期货收益率当天基本持平;目前则最多上涨约6.5个基点。期限较长债券的收益率似乎已收复此前大部分跌幅,而沃什偏鹰派基调的影响在美元市场表现得更为明显。欧元/美元跌至1.16,墨西哥比索回到1美元兑17比索附近,日元则逼近1美元兑160日元。

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