金吾财讯 | 密歇根大学公布8月消费者调查终值数据，消费者信心指数向上修正至51.7，初值为51.0，但依旧低于7月55.2的读数。一年期通胀预期回落至4.0%，低于7月4.3%的初步读数，该水平仍显著高于冲突爆发前2月的3.4%以及2024年的全部统计数据。五年期隐含通胀预期维持3.3%，连续三个月保持平稳，略高于2024年2.8%-3.2%的区间。分项数据上，当前经济状况终值51.9，初值51.8，7月为54.8；消费者预期终值51.5，较月初初值50.6出现明显抬升，但相比7月55.4依旧存在不小差距。整体消费者信心较上月下滑约6%，同比去年下降11%，居民依旧担忧通胀会在一段时间内维持高位。调查显示8月消费情绪走弱覆盖各类政治群体，共和党群体感受下滑最为突出。年长群体、中低收入群体以及不持有股票的居民，对生活成本上涨承受能力偏弱，悲观情绪表现更为明显。受访者预期一年商业环境下行10%，五年维度商业环境预期下滑13%，机构提示，若贸易紧张局势再度升级，或将进一步压制居民对经济前景的判断。
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