Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】招银国际维持长城汽车（02333）“买入”评级 料下半年盈利回升

金吾财讯
Aug 26

金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，长城汽车（02333）2Q26核心盈利符合预期，收入超预期。2Q26净利润人民币15.19亿元（同比-67%、环比+61%），符合业绩预告；同比下滑主要缘于俄罗斯报废税返还确认递延（约20亿元，2Q25同期确认23亿元），剔除该一次性拖累及汇兑影响，核心净利同比大致持平。收入同比+9%至570亿元、高于该机构预期4%，出口占比过半带动单季ASP创历史新高达18.1万元（同比+8%）；毛利率18.3%保持韧性（2Q25为18.8%）。该机构将FY26E销量预测下调3万台至135万台（出口70万台、国内65万台），隐含2H26销量约77万台（环比+31%、同比+2%）。综合出口贡献与年终奖计提，预计2H26毛利率环比收窄0.5个百分点至17.9%；报废税返还保守按30亿元计入2H26盈利预测。综上，略微下调FY26E净利润预测1.3%至92亿元；FY27E销量由160万台下调至153万台，净利润下调7.5%至109亿元。该机构认为，2H26盈利有望环比大幅回升。报废税返还预计于年底到账、H10等新车爬坡、直营渠道布局完成后销售费用企稳，有望共同驱动2H26盈利环比大幅回升；出口占销量比重已过半且毛利率结构性更高，是盈利质量的压舱石，归元平台则有望修复国内销量。维持“买入”评级，港股目标价下调至14港元，基于10x FY27E P/E；A股目标价人民币25元，基于当前约110%的A/H溢价（前值：19港元/人民币28.5元）。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10