The U.S. and Canadian governments, along with businesses in both countries, are bracing for a prolonged trade dispute that could last until after the midterm elections, according to people familiar with their thinking.

Washington and Ottawa are locked in a tariff tit-for-tat after last-minute talks broke down over the weekend. The Trump administration on Saturday imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods, leading Prime Minister Mark Carney to retaliate with similar tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, effective Sept. 8.

In response to Carney's retaliation, Trump blasted Canada on social media and threatened to rename Lake Ontario "Lake America." He also said he would increase tariffs on Canadian vehicles further, doubling them to 50%, and impose levies on auto parts, which could imperil the North American automotive industry, where parts zip back and forth across the border several times before they are assembled into a vehicle.

That next phase of Trump's tariffs, however, won't take effect until Jan. 1, 2027, giving both sides plenty of time to return to the negotiating table.

"The best thing to do is let some water run under the bridge and give everyone time and space to cool down," said Kelly Ann Shaw, deputy director of the National Economic Council in Trump's first term. "I don't see any possibility of an off-ramp between now and September," she said, adding, "Let's see where things are in December."

In an interview with a Canadian Broadcasting Corp. television program on Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that it's "not clear" what it would take to get both sides back to the table. "We don't have open channels right now," he said.

Carney told reporters on Monday that Canada would return to the negotiating table only when U.S. officials show up with "the right attitude" and demonstrate respect for the country's sovereignty. He said last week that the U.S. made "unfair" last-minute demands and that the U.S. signature is sometimes "written in pencil."

Although no formal meetings are scheduled between the sides, the long lead time before the next round of U.S. tariffs is giving some industries hope that the governments will eventually resume talks.

"It's possible we'll see the storm before the calm over the next few days as both sides vent publicly after intense negotiations," said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a group of trade-reliant U.S. businesses. "But everyone loses if this relationship spirals. Hundreds of thousands of jobs are potentially at stake on both sides of the border if this relationship fractures further."

Canada is preparing for an extended dispute. The government this week announced more than $5 billion in new support to help workers and businesses hit by the new tariffs, in addition to the nearly $20 billion it had rolled out previously.

Wab Kinew, the premier of the province of Manitoba, told reporters this week that Carney warned the country's provincial leaders to brace for years of economic turbulence and to ensure that their own financial-aid programs are "a bridge past the Trump administration."

While industry officials in contact with both governments expressed hope this week that a deal ultimately could be reached, they acknowledged that it might not happen in the short term.

The current scale of the new U.S. tariffs on Canada is relatively narrow, affecting about 5% of their exports to the U.S. The Canadian government's planned retaliation would hit about 6% of U.S. exports to Canada. While the scope of the trade war could widen with new tariffs, both economies likely can shoulder the burden of the current levies, at least for a time.

Economists estimate that the new tariffs will have a modest impact on Canada's export-driven economy and are unlikely to send it into a recession. Some sectors and provinces are likely to bear more pain than others, they said, and persistent uncertainty over the future of the bilateral trading relationship could weigh on business confidence and hiring and investment decisions.

Political incentives are also pushing each side to kick the can on negotiations. Canada's retaliatory tariffs were aimed in part at border states with competitive midterm elections such as Maine and Michigan, making a further widening of the trade war potentially costly for Trump's Republican Party in the midterms. Carney's Liberal Party is competing in three special elections for parliamentary seats on Aug. 31, giving him political incentive to stand up to the U.S.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said Canada was offered the most generous trade deal of any U.S. trading partners despite being overwhelmingly reliant on access to the American economy.

Carney, meanwhile, came to power last year by casting himself as the person best placed to steer Canada through the tumult of U.S. trade uncertainty and to stand up to Trump. He enjoyed high personal approval ratings even before he walked away from the negotiating table, and his Liberals lead the Conservatives in the polls.

The Canadian leader has drawn support from across the political spectrum in Canada for ditching what some premiers and industry groups feared was a bad deal with the U.S. The Canadian public is also in his corner and favors the adoption of a tougher stance in negotiations with the U.S. instead of making more concessions.

A poll this week from the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian nonprofit public opinion research foundation, found that 76% of people agreed with Carney's decision to walk away, even as 89% said they worried the new tariffs would raise the costs of goods and services and two-in-five said they feared for their job security.

Steve Verheul, who served as Canada's chief trade negotiator during the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was replaced by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, during Trump's first term, said "there's clearly been some damage to the bilateral relationship" and that it "probably should take some time before we get onto a better track."

"I think that we're really at a point where it's not going to be particularly easy to get back to the negotiating table given the situation where we left that table," he said Wednesday at an event hosted by the Bank of Montreal, "and the U.S. is there, too. So, obviously, significant challenges ahead."