金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券研究指，2026年8月焦煤市场全线上行，JM09合约突破6月高点，JM01合约也接近前期高点位置。近月合约波动弹性更大，盘面近强远弱格局凸显，跨期正套同步走强。往后看，行情的胜负在于供给缺口与负反馈风险的赛跑。焦煤涨价需经焦炭提涨逐级传导至钢厂，短期下游弱势可暂时搁置；近月交易的是当下难以弥补的供给缺口，远月交易的则是成本传导不畅及下游弱需求现实。中期来看，待成本传导至钢材端，市场逻辑有望从“供给收缩涨价”向“需求走弱压价”切换。9月中旬既是传统旺季需求的关键检验窗口，同时JM09合约基本完成交割、交割扰动也将随之减弱。当前上行空间有限而下行风险持续累积，风险收益比已明显不利于高位追多。当然市场可能会提前交易，焦煤逻辑切换快，资金博弈大，这一切换未必等待基本面恶化，价格本身就是触发器。该机构建议：1）单边：当前焦煤高位博弈加剧，单边上涨行情或已步入尾声，市场风险逐步积聚，预计双向波动都较大。已有多单，建议逢高减仓，保留部分底仓；若空仓，则建议观望为主，谨慎参与。2）套利：焦煤正套逐步止盈，焦煤月差正套已至阶段性高位，不建议追高。
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