大行评级丨招商证券国际:海底捞风险收益比极具吸引力,评级升至“增持”

格隆汇
Aug 27
招商证券国际发表报告指,海底捞上半年业绩稳健,明确释放经营拐点信号。公司营收同比增7.9%至223亿元,位于该行预测区间上限;受促销力度加大拖累毛利率下滑,净利润略低于预期。但该行认为本轮利润率承压属于主动投入,是公司稳固市场份额、提升门店客流的必要举措。管理层超预期派发中期股息每股0.377港元,分红比例近100%,反映管理层对公司强劲现金流创造能力及长期运营基本面的信心。 考虑外送业务及新品牌营收贡献提升,该行小幅上调2026-2027年营收预测,平均上调幅度1%;受短期促销投入增加、原材料成本上行影响,下调两年净利润预测2.5%。该行将其目标价由16港元下调至14.4港元。目前股价对应13.8倍2027年中期市盈率,处于近两年低位,是布局其长期基本面修复的极佳窗口期。高股息率构筑坚实下行安全垫,叠加多品牌扩张重回提速轨道,标的风险收益比极具吸引力,评级由“中性”上调至“增持”。

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