Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
6 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0228 GMT - Copper declines in Asia trading. The market for the base metal appears to be increasingly difficult to interpret, given a new set of forces affecting prices, centered on geographic arbitrage and trade policy, say Societe Generale analysts in a note. Limited mine supply and growing demand from sectors such as artificial intelligence have generally supported prices, they note. However, tariff-related arbitrage has redirected large volumes of copper inventories toward the U.S., affecting stockpiles elsewhere and making the market difficult to analyze based on traditional frameworks alone, they add. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange falls 0.3% to $14,225.50 a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0225 GMT - Iron ore edges higher in early Asian trading, with the most-traded contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange up 0.1% at 716.0 yuan a ton. Coking coal, a key steelmaking ingredient, is in short supply in China, after a deadly mine explosion in May, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Both iron ore and coking coal are ingredients for making steel. Prices are also likely supported by the prospect of mills restocking ahead of China's National Day holiday, they add. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0158 GMT - Gold's bullish momentum still has room to run, Citi Research's Kenny Hu says in a research report. The commodities strategist sees tailwinds in the eventual resolution of the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz, lower real U.S. rates and a less hawkish Fed. Citi raises its gold-price target for up to 3 months to $4,800 an ounce from $4,500, while leaving its target for the 6-12 month horizon unchanged at $5,000 an ounce. However, gold price may face "short-term volatility ahead around binary risks" at this week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is slated to speak, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.5% higher at $4,673.57 an ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0044 GMT - Ansell's exposure to economic cycles, input-cost inflation and currency moves make it hard for the personal-protective equipment maker to deliver consistent growth, UBS analysts warn. Maintaining a neutral rating on the stock, the analysts tell clients in a note they are encouraged by Ansell's strong June-half performance but that a focus on organic revenue growth is nothing new for the company. They like Ansell's stronger-than-expected earnings guidance but see a potential second-half revenue headwind from a reduction in synthetic glove prices, pointing to a recent fall in oil-derived input costs. UBS lifts its target price 13% to 38.70 Australian dollars. Shares are up 6.3% at A$40.65. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0038 GMT - Ansell's stronger-than-expected earnings guidance isn't enough to turn Macquarie analysts more bullish on the stock. They raise their fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to the midpoint of the personal-protective equipment maker's guidance range, but point out that management will look to unwind recent price increases if inflation falls. This is enough to keep them cautious, they tell clients in a note. The Macquarie analysts think the 9.6% share-price jump that followed this week's fiscal 2026 result announcement left the stock fairly valued. Macquarie stays neutral on the stock and lifts its target price 9.3% to 38.60 Australian dollars. Shares are up 5.75% at A$40.44. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0029 GMT - Gold gains in Asian trade. The yellow metal has the potential to move toward $5,000 a troy ounce as continued central bank demand, fiscal risks and geopolitical uncertainty support a largely optimistic medium-term outlook, says Rania Gule of XS.com in a note. A weaker dollar and concerns around U.S. debt could also support gold demand, as the precious metal's prices become less dependent on any single catalyst, the analyst says. Gold is likely to maintain its upward trend, with a decisive break over $4,700 an ounce likely to signal the metal's gradual advance toward $5,000 and beyond, she adds. Spot gold rises 0.7% to $4,682.05 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2336 GMT [Dow Jones]--Monadelphous expects a year of consolidation in FY27. The market expects it to have one, too. "MND referred to FY27 being a year of consolidation and being able to position for future growth," RBC Capital Markets says following the engineering company's FY26 results. That is in line with previous remarks by management, who at the 1H FY26 result said that delivering growth in FY27 would be challenging, says the broker. "Importantly, current FY27 consensus NPAT [net profit] expectations are A$129 million, flat versus today's FY26 print," it says. RBC has a sector perform rating and A$31.00 target on Monadelphous. Shares ended Monday at A$32.27. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Monadelphous reports a solid FY result, with Ebitda and net profit both 1% higher than consensus, says Barrenjoey. The bank attributes the modest beats to tax and interest revenue. The engineering company's cash result is well ahead of consensus, with operating cash flow a 28% beat, Barrenjoey says. It notes that the stock outperformed heading into the result. Monadelphous says FY27 will be a year to consolidate and position for future growth. "We think a key question on the call will be quantum and drivers of revenue base in FY27 to position for growth," Barrenjoey says. It has an overweight rating and A$31.10 target on Monadelphous. Shares ended Monday at A$32.37. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2244 GMT [Dow Jones]--Ansell's bull at Jefferies is impressed at how the personal-protective equipment maker managed to raise prices while simultaneously delivering on strategy and acquisition integration. Maintaining a buy rating on the stock, analyst Vanessa Thomson tells clients in a note that she expects positive momentum to continue into the current fiscal year, with sales growth and productivity gains in the cards. Thomson likes how Ansell has refined supply chains and improved sourcing productivity in response to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and thinks this will continue. Jefferies raises its target price on the ASX-listed stock 16% to 44.50 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$38.24 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1953 GMT - A decline in slaughter is helping hog markets stabilize, and while slaughter will likely gradually recover, it's expected to remain below year-ago levels in 2H 2026, analysts at Rabobank say in a report. Pork demand remains below a year-ago on consumer weakness and competitive export markets, they say. "While lower pork production should help balance markets and support cutout values, pork prices in 2H 2026 may continue to lag the recovery in hog prices as export markets remain competitive," Rabobank adds. Lean hogs edge up 0.3% on CME to 81.125 cents a pound. Live cattle fall 2% to $2.136 a pound. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1932 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures inch up with a few more weeks of hot weather-driven demand expected to support power-sector use. "Heat remains supportive across most of the South, but its concentration in less population-dense regions limits the national demand impact," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "LNG exports should provide additional demand as fall approaches, but rising supply may absorb a meaningful portion of that increase." Nymex natural gas settles up 0.3% at $2.782/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1931 GMT - Oil futures lose ground after six straight sessions of gains as the U.S. launched a plan to sanction countries or companies that do business with Iran. "The immediate measures look less dramatic than the rhetoric," Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, says in a note. Iranian oil exports are already down with the U.S. blockade and unless China reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be limited. "The biggest oil-market risk may not be the sanctions themselves, but Iran's response to them," he says. "Iran still has considerable capacity to disrupt everybody else's exports." WTI settles down 2.4% at $85.01 a barrel and Brent falls 2.4% to $92.17.

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